Nvidia reports after the bell tonight, and the whole market is doing that thing where you let a dram sit a beat too long before the first sip, all nerves and anticipation. Oil is easing on a whiff of Iran diplomacy, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge lands before the opening bell, and somewhere Moderna scientists are celebrating with something considerably fancier than well whisky. Pour accordingly.
Stocks closed higher across the board Tuesday, with the Nasdaq leading on an AI hardware rebound. Futures were quiet ahead of this morning's PCE inflation print, with core inflation expected to hold at 3.3%, and the real event lands tonight when Nvidia reports earnings, still the closest thing Wall Street has to a market wide sobriety test. Oil fell for a third straight session as Iran and Oman discussed easing maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, taking some of the geopolitical premium out of crude. Bitcoin kept climbing toward its best levels in three months.
Ukraine's allies convened in Kyiv on the country's Independence Day, with the UK's prime minister attending in person and France and Germany joining remotely. Zelenskyy is pressing for at least 300 Patriot interceptors ahead of winter, noting deliveries have fallen from 675 in 2023 to just 364 last year while Russian strikes continue. No breakthrough on a ceasefire, just another season of drone and missile exchanges on both sides.
Trade talks between Washington and Ottawa collapsed last week, with Prime Minister Carney saying the US "asked too much and offered too little." Existing 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian wine, cement and dairy stay in place, auto tariffs are set to double to 50% in 2027, and Canada has its own retaliation queued for September 8 covering steel, appliances and electronics. Economists warn it could reignite the inflation pressure that had just started to fade.
Crude has slid for three straight sessions as Iran and Oman discuss easing restrictions on maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a rare bit of de-escalation in a region that has spent the better part of the year keeping oil traders on edge. Nothing is signed yet, but the mere hint of a calmer shipping lane was enough to knock WTI back toward $80.
Shares jumped more than 14% after Moderna and Merck posted positive Phase 3 data for a personalized mRNA vaccine targeting melanoma, the first late stage clinical proof that mRNA technology can work against cancer, not just infectious disease. It is the kind of headline that reminds you Moderna was never just a vaccine company.
Up roughly 8% after Taiwanese prosecutors indicted nine individuals, not the company itself, in an illegal AI server export probe involving China. Since Super Micro was never named as a target, the legal overhang that had been weighing on shares lifted, and Dell rode the same AI server demand read through for a 4% gain of its own.
Climbed as much as 8% on a fresh crypto rally alongside growing Wall Street interest in Robinhood's prediction markets push, which is starting to look less like a novelty and more like a real business line. Bitcoin's move to three month highs did not hurt.
The 10 year Treasury yield sits at 4.65%, still well above its 12 month average near 4.29% even after easing off July's peak of 4.75%. The average 30 year fixed mortgage rate is holding at 6.75%, having ticked back up after dipping to 6.68% a couple weeks ago, as elevated long term yields keep offsetting cooler jobs and inflation data. For members eyeing Panhandle acquisitions or refis, that means financing costs stay stubbornly sticky for now. Watch the 10 year: if yields keep drifting lower on soft economic data, mortgage rates should eventually follow, but this week is not that week.